The future of flying cars: science fact or science fiction?

Uber has shaken up the taxi industry and is trying to put driverless cars on our roads. Now the company aims to have flying ride-sharing vehicles in our skies by 2020.

Uber is not alone in working towards flying cars. But is this realistic, or just marketing hype?

To many of us, the concept of flying cars is synonymous with the future, just like silver jumpsuits and gourmet food in the form of a pill. Those dreams have not yet materialised so what about flying cars?

How is this a car?

The classic idea of a flying car was just that: a car that could somehow fly.

Filmed in the 1940s in Italy, a propeller driven automobile that flies makes its first test flight.

In fiction, the author Ian Fleming was a fan of flying cars, writing his novel Chitty Chitty Bang Bang around the concept in 1963. He also included a flying car in his James Bond novel (1964) and subsequent film, The Man with The Golden Gun. These concepts are based on a car with wheels that can drive on the road but is also capable of flying when required.

Science fiction writers and directors have often dispensed with the need to have future vehicles ever drive on the road. Instead, the "cars" are simply small aircraft such as the one Anakin Skywalker used in the Star Wars film Attack of the Clones.

The recent flying car announcements vary in type from single-seat, multi-copter drone-type aircraft, to road-style cars that turn into light aircraft and small flying boats that hover above the water.

It would appear that almost any small flying vehicle capable of transporting a person is now referred to as a flying car. But clearly they are really just a kind of small aircraft.

How safe?

Any potential passenger will want to know: "How safe is this contraption?"

The likely answer right now is "not very safe", as with all early-stage technology. Companies are working feverishly to make their aircraft "safe enough" in the hope of convincing regulators and governments that the vehicles can be entrusted with human lives.

But there are incredible safety challenges. One of the biggest is what to do when things go badly wrong.

With a normal car, you can often just slow to a halt and stop. But a flying car might fall out of the sky, killing not only its occupants but potentially bystanders too.

Ehang's flying taxi for Dubai.

The Chinese company Ehang is proposing to equip its flying car service in Dubai with a parachute. This service will apparently take a single occupant from the roof of one Dubai skyscraper to the roof of another.

Should the parachute deploy, it is not clear whether the vehicle will have any way to control where it lands, or how safely.

In the existing aviation industry, much of the mechanics of flying is automated. Given the challenges of a person flying compared to driving a car, and the efforts to reduce human error in aviation, there is even more likelihood of flying cars becoming automated so that no human pilot is needed.

But there will be differences between existing aviation practice and flying cars. Passenger jet air travel owes much of its impressive safety record to improvements in aircraft maintenance procedures and our understanding of failures. It is unlikely that the business case for small flying cars will allow for such rigorous practices.

Instead, flying cars will be less complex than modern jets, and the latest demonstrators show exactly that.

The use of large numbers of small electric motors, such as in the Lilium all-electric aircraft, reduces the maintenance complexity drastically. It also provides an inbuilt measure of redundancy in case one motor fails.

The Lilium electric aircraft. How fast, how far?

Wouldn't it be great to avoid the traffic and public transport congestion of our major cities? We think so.

For example, it currently takes 23 minutes to drive the 19km from our offices in Brisbane to the domestic airport, when traffic is freely flowing.

If we could fly from our office roof (and there is a pad on our roof that is ideally suited to deploying a flying car), the trip would only take 8 minutes.

We'd get a double boost, first from flying at an average speed of (say) 100kmh, and second by taking the straightest path, a mere 13km.

Drive or fly? Source: 123rf.com/Egudinka/Google/Michael Milford

This example journey is well within the capabilities of the flying cars being demonstrated today.

Of course it may be that authorities mandate that we stick to flight corridors reserved for flying cars, so a direct route is not always an option. These corridors may be strategically located over low-risk areas of land that have minimal population.

How easy?

There are lots of things about flying cars that are hard, but some problems may become easier.

There is a lot more space available for cars when you when you have access to three dimensions for travel, as long as the navigation challenges are solved.

Using the several hundred metres of space above the ground means you can potentially have a lot less traffic congestion. You also don't need to build and maintain expensive road infrastructure.

For self-driving flying cars, moving into the sky actually makes some aspects of planning and traffic control easier.

There's a lot more space in the sky. 123rf.com/Ostapenko, Tele52/Michael Milford How much?

It is too early to know how the economics of flying cars will work.

Given the huge regulatory hurdles, the safety issues to overcome, and the lack of special infrastructure to support flying cars (such as take-off and landing areas and charging points for the all-electric aircraft), it is difficult to estimate what a trip should cost.

The current non-flying car ride-sharing companies such as Uber appear to be operating at a massive loss.

The price paid by the consumer in an Uber vehicle is reported to be on average less than half the actual cost of the trip, but the company is hoping to recoup some of these costs by implementing driverless cars. Given that there's even more chance that flying cars will be driverless, maybe the economics will be favourable.

What would a consumer be willing to pay to possibly get to their destination in half the time? There's at least one famous historical example in Concorde that posed that same question, and had safety issues. Sadly, its supersonic passenger flights are not available any more.

How long the before I can fly to work?

There is still so much to do before flying cars can become common. The technology has come a long way, mainly due to the rapid development of drones. But the technology of the flying machine itself is just one part of a very complex system.

Like ground-based self-driving cars, it's likely that if they ever happen, flying cars will occur in certain priority areas first.

Imagine a cheaper but still expensive option for high-level executives, such as the Dubai proposal.

For the rest of us, we may already be walking around in silver jumpsuits and eating meals in a pill before we get to ride in a flying car.

Source: The future of flying cars: science fact or science fiction?

Two in five people said they’d be interested in owning an autonomous flying car

One day we'll all be jetting around in flying cars. Or that's what Google co-founder Larry Page hopes will happen anyway. The billionaire is an investor in Kitty Hawk, the flying car startup that showed the world its aerial jetski in action last month.

Uber also has plans to bring flying cars to U.S. airspace by 2020, which the company shared at a conference it held in April to discuss its big sky vision of operating a network of aerial taxis.

But will anyone actually want to ride in one of these weird, dangerous looking things?

Turns out a lot of people would.

Researchers Michael Sivak and Brandon Schoettle from the University of Michigan's Transportation Research Institute recently conducted a survey with 508 respondents from across the country to ask what they thought about flying cars. The respondents were fairly evenly split between men (48 percent) and women (52 percent) and across age brackets.

The study, published last month, showed that 44 percent of respondents were very interested in riding a fully autonomous flying taxi and 41 percent said they'd be interested in owning one.

Still, even if people are down to ride, they're not sold on safety. 63 percent of respondents reported to be very concerned about how safe it would be to ride in one of these things (20 percent were moderately concerned and 11 percent were only slightly concerned). That's probably why nearly 80 percent said that they think it's either very important or extremely important for flying cars to have a parachute on board.

When it comes to lifting straight off the ground like a helicopter — rather than using a landing strip — 83 percent of respondents overwhelming said they'd prefer vertical take off.

Men were more enthusiastic about the technology than women. 52 percent of male respondents reported feeling positive or very positive about flying cars, while only 38 percent of women were equally optimistic.

And in terms of practicality, 62 percent said they'd prefer the flying cars to seat between 3 and 4 people and 41 percent felt a flying car should be able to go for a minimum of about 400 miles before needing to recharge or refuel.

Here's a video Kitty Hawk shared last month of its new aircraft:

Source: Two in five people said they'd be interested in owning an autonomous flying car

VW Diesel Cars Caught in Emissions Scandal Begin Flying Off Lots

Volkswagen AG is suddenly experiencing a run on diesels.

The auto maker's TDI diesel cars are back on sale after being yanked from the U.S. market 18 months ago, sparking a race among buyers still interested in the niche technology but faced with an extremely limited supply.

VW dealerships were barred from selling their signature diesel...

Source: VW Diesel Cars Caught in Emissions Scandal Begin Flying Off Lots

‘Great Scott! The Future is Here’: Uber Announces Dallas Will be First American City to Feature Flying Cars

Local News By Spring Sault | May 4, 2017

A joint announcement made by the City of Dallas, Texas and Uber (the San Francisco-based ride-hailing company) identifies that Dallas will be the first American city to test out flying cars. Going by the acronym, VTOL (vertical take-off and landing), these cars/aircraft will alter more than just our mode of transportation. They'll also alter the horizon as well as Dallas' regularly scheduled traffic jams, and they're part of an ambitious six-year plan unveiled by Uber for rolling out small aircraft for use-on-demand in the region.

Photo: Facebook/Maximaxoo

Known as the "Uber Elevate" project, the company has selected two cities for the launch of the VTOLs. One is Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, and the other, Dallas. In an interview with the Dallas Morning News, Uber's Chief Product Officer, Jeff Holden, has identified that Dallas was chosen as the perfect pilot city for this project based on its "rich history of aviation." Additionally, it's been noted for its rapid population growth and the high percentage of pilots in the area.

Photo: Facebook/Techdesign

According to Mark Moore, a longtime NASA engineer who has been working on the project as Engineering Director for Aviation, has explained that the construction of what are called "vertiports" (centers of activity similar to American Airlines Center) has been contracted to Hillwood, Ross Perot Jr.'s development company, and testing will commence in 2020, with five of these centers proposed for the city. Uber is planning some forward thinking, and although the possibility of VTOLs seems out-there, in truth, they're not the first company to be planning and prepping. Uber's immediate competition appears to be the more than a dozen startups in the Silicon Valley presently seeking to develop them, as well as the likes of Google, who are also rumored to be having pie-in-the-sky…'er cars-in-the-sky plans. Only time will tell, and 2020 is less than three years away. As Dr. Emmett Brown would say: "Great Scott, the future is here!"

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Source: 'Great Scott! The Future is Here': Uber Announces Dallas Will be First American City to Feature Flying Cars

Verify: Will we see 'flying' cars by 2020?

Timothy Weisberg, KXTV 1:55 PM. PDT May 03, 2017

Uber has already rolled out driverless cars, but now they want their ride-hailing service to take to the skies.

During Uber Elevate, a three-day summit held in Dallas last month, Uber said there could be a prototype for a flying car in the Dallas-Fort Worth area and Dubai by 2020.

In fact, their hope is to conduct passenger flights at the World Expo in Dubai in 2020.

It sounds like something from 'The Jetsons' , but it's what Uber's Chief Product Officer Jeff Holden says will happen sooner rather than later.

The bold statement caught our attention, and had us wondering: Could we see flying cars by 2020?

According to Missy Cummings, a professor at Duke University's Pratt School of Engineering, there are three main barriers that stand in the way of making Uber's on-demand flight system a reality regulation: safety and testing.

Cummings, who is also the Director of the Humans and Autonomy Lab, has studied public policy implications for unmanned vehicles. She told ABC10 that the type of aircraft Uber is envisioning as their fleet of air taxis have never been tested for passenger safety, or been certified as safe for flight and for passengers.

UberAir

Uber first outlined their plans for a fleet of electric planes in a 98-page white paper.

Published in Oct. 2016, it laid out Uber's vision for air transit, including vehicles that would hit the skies, and clock between 100 and 150 miles per hour. It would make a trip from San Jose to San Francisco, which could take nearly two hours during rush hour, take 15 minutes by air.

A rider would open the Uber app, and choose "UberAir." That rider would be taken to a "skyport," where they would board an aircraft that is shared with other passengers, The Mercury News reported.

Uber is not creating their own flying machines, but working with other companies on aircraft development. They also are not the only ones trying to create flying cars. Last month, a Silicon Valley startup backed by Google co-founder Larry Page released a prototype for a flying car: a one-seat aircraft that hovers over water.

What are VTOLs?

The planes Uber wants to roll out look more like drones and are called electric vertical take off and landing aircraft, or VTOLs. The idea is that they would fly straight up like a helicopter, then fly forward like a plane.

But like drones, or any other unmanned aircraft system, there needs to be a set of rules for operating them.

According to Cummings, the VTOLs would need to be tracked using a new air traffic control system because it is tough for radar to pick up flying aircraft at low altitudes.

NASA is working on a traffic management system for drones, and have even done test runs in Crows Landing near Modesto, but the system is still in the beginning stages, Cummings said.

Before the VTOLs can be cleared for takeoff, they must get approval from the Federal Aviation Administration, who is in charge of all aspects of civil aviation.

In a long statement to ABC10, the FAA said they are working with several companies on autonomous passenger aircraft.

"We are taking a flexible, open-minded, and risk-based approach to integrating new technologies into the world's busiest, most complex – and safest – aviation system. We have discussed certification projects with several manufacturers of aircraft that will be flown with a pilot in the beginning, then will be converted to an autonomous passenger aircraft in the future. We also have been working with NASA's On Demand Mobility project addressing advanced air transportation concepts, which include similar vehicles. Several areas still need further research and development, particularly the operational aspects of making sure the automation that will "fly" the autonomous aircraft is safe, and how the automation will interact with the air traffic control system. We believe automation technology already being prototyped in low-risk unmanned aircraft missions, when fully mature, could have a positive effect on general aviation safety."

The FAA declined to speculate on any timeline for implementing rules and regulations on autonomous passenger aircraft because they could vary with every new model or product.

So will we have flying cars by 2020? It depends on what Uber means by flying cars. According to Cummings, if it is a pilot controlling an aircraft from the ground, then no. A more realistic year for flying cars becoming a reality is 2030, she said. 

Cummings pointed out that it took years to set rules for commercial drone operations, and even then, there's a 55-pound weight limit. Going from drones to something that carries people is a big jump.

As for Uber's claim about having sky taxis by 2020, we're labeling this not verified.

Missy Cummings, Duke University Professor, Pratt School of Engineering

Federal Aviation Administration

Uber, "Fast-Forwarding to a Future of On-Demand Urban Air Transportation," Oct. 27, 2015

NASA, "First Steps Toward Drone Traffic Management," Nov. 19, 2015

© 2017 KXTV-TV

Source: Verify: Will we see 'flying' cars by 2020?

How Removing Drivers from Trucks Leads to Flying Cars

John Breeden II is an award-winning journalist and reviewer with over 20 years of experience covering technology and government. He is currently the CEO of the Tech Writers Bureau, a group that creates technological thought leadership content for organizations of all sizes. Twitter: @LabGuys

It's amusing how wrong we often are when trying to predict the future. Almost every one of those "world of technology" predictions from the 1950s and '60s had us all commuting to work in flying cars, like a car that could fly was somehow the pinnacle of innovation. Those visions look so dated and silly today.

The truth is, building a flying car isn't really that tough. If you modify your automobile blueprint enough, it becomes an airplane, or at least something that sort of, kind of, might resemble one if you squint, like the new Kitty Hawk vehicle backed by Google's Larry Page revealed last week.

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Is it just me, or does that "car" look more like a pool toy or an oversized jet ski? No, the problem isn't building a flying vehicle; it's keeping people from dying in fiery crashes when using them. We have enough problems on the ground.

To that end, both federal and state governments are backing another vehicle-based technology actually more impressive than flying cars, namely enabling vehicles to safely drive themselves. This has been a goal for some time now, with the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency sponsoring the Grand Challenge competition for driverless vehicles for the past 17 years. Recent moves, however, are laying the foundation for real-world driverless applications.

The biggest one is the work being done by the Transportation Department on the Dedicated Short Range Communications standard, and the allocation of a reserved frequency it can operate within. DSRC is designed to enable high bursts of data transmission to occur between vehicles. It also will eventually allow vehicles to communicate with infrastructure such as dedicated information transmission stations, or perhaps even the roadways themselves. The Federal Communications Commission recently allocated and reserved 75 MHz of spectrum in the 5.9 GHz band for use by Intelligent Transportations Systems and DSRC.

DOT is experimenting with DSRC at its Research and Innovative Technology Administration facilities and expects to standardize on a system that can be used in vehicles in the near future. DSRC probably won't jump to driverless vehicles right away but could be put in use very quickly in driver-assist type technologies, alerting the vehicle about dangerous road conditions or a hazard like stopped cars ahead.

States are taking an even more aggressive look at automated vehicle technology. Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania recently formed the Smart Belt Coalition to explore the possibility of using driverless vehicles to help connect those three states. The goals of Smart Belt are to "establish a high-profile, high-impact and long-distance network of transportation innovations in connected automation" and to "support testing and deployment of various applications of connected and automated vehicles."

The resources devoted to this task include the University of Michigan, Michigan State University, the American Center for Mobility, the Ohio Turnpike and Infrastructure Commission, Ohio State University, the Transportation Research Center, the Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission, Carnegie Mellon University and the departments of transportation from all three states.

Where I think the Smart Belt Coalition will first find traction is on the major highways that wind through and link those states. Startup company Embark is pioneering a driverless tractor trailer, as well as a form of travel known as platooning where multiple driverless trucks travel together, feeding each other sensor data and sharing event information so if, say, the lead truck has to brake, the following ones automatically do so as well. It's a perfect use of the government's DSRC standard in action. Embark recently released a video of its truck in action along a long stretch of highway, at one point even passing another vehicle.

With the Embark system, humans would not be needed for highway runs but would be called back into the driver's seat when a truck arrives in a city or town. Having a truck navigate city streets with all of their hazards, not to mention people, is beyond what our current technology can safely overcome. Whether that means humans will be brought along for some long rides or simply based in depots to ferry the big rigs for those last few miles is unknown right now.

I drive up to Pennsylvania for work every now and again, so theoretically, I could be exposed to driverless trucks at some point, especially when out on the turnpike. I am generally OK with that. If the technology works perfectly, most drivers won't even know they are traveling alongside a driverless vehicle.

I do think a few important questions need to be answered before we start deploying driverless semis in mass. Security must be addressed for one, keeping outside attackers from taking control of the trucks, which would become formidable weapons in the wrong hands. Also, I would like to see how they plan to address fail-safe measures. What happens if the driving sensors get covered in road grime, if there is unreported or new construction along the route, or if visibility is reduced by snow or rain?

And back to flying cars for just a second. Those of you who really want a vehicle that can fly know safe operation is probably the biggest hurdle to that dream. If we can figure out self-driving vehicles on the ground, the next step might be taking to the skies, though I wouldn't order your nuclear-powered flying car just yet.

Source: How Removing Drivers from Trucks Leads to Flying Cars

Flying squad in pursuit of the flying getaway car

Sir, Your fascinating report "Flying car trailblazers try blue sky thinking" (April 28) paints an optimistic view of the future, but doesn't go into details on the regulatory problems that will need to be overcome. Among these will be how the authorities prevent such vehicles being used by burglars; will we have to have a real police "flying squad"?

The dangers of flying vehicles becoming available to terrorists are even more worrying. At the moment, concrete barriers can be used to protect sensitive buildings from attacks by vehicles loaded with explosives. Short of a "force bubble" surrounding each building (an idea common in science fiction but apparently even further away from development than flying cars), how will aerial attacks be prevented?

By comparison with these issues, the problems of day-to-day traffic control and collision prevention for "flying cars" look almost trivial.

David Linnell

Loughton, Essex, UK

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Source: Flying squad in pursuit of the flying getaway car