Still no flying cars?

"I never think of the future - it comes soon enough." — Albert Einstein

As we careen through May with graduation and the end of the school year in sight, many think about the next steps in their life.

Some people even get paid to try to predict the future.

That would be a very tough job. It's always easier to write about the past and point out where the futurists went wrong.

I've been part of a couple discussions in the past month about the future. Local elected officials try to plan and predict what may be coming so our communities can harness growth without having to play (and pay for) catching up to what is happening.

Technology often plays a major role in the way we live our lives. I consider the Apollo moon landings one of the major technological accomplishments that has occurred during my life.

Did you know that the average smartphone of today has more processing power than the spacecraft that landed on the Moon? The older I get, the more I marvel that we made it there and back safely.

We often develop technologies before understanding the social and ethical complications that will arise as unintended consequences from their use. It is estimated that in 2018 the first self driving cars will be available for the public.

While I am still waiting for the flying cars I was promised as a child, futurists theorize that the preschoolers of today will never have need of a driver's license, thanks to automated cars, piloted by global positioning systems.

Let's take the next leap of logic. If cars are automated and software companies like Uber and Lyft can offer a ride with a few swipes of your cell phone, would you even need to own a car?

An estimated 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. Currently, one accident occurs every 100,000 km; with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 10 million km. That will save a million lives each year.

With fewer accidents, the business model of insurance companies will change as well.

In addition to the 1.2 million people that would have died annually in car accidents, life spans continue to grow. Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span was 79 years, now it's 80 years. Futurists estimate that the rate of life span increases will grow as well and by 2036, the rate of increase may be more than a year per year.

Sure, we will live longer, but how will we deal with aging and the challenges of overpopulation?

By next year, the Tricorder Xprize competition will be consumer testing a hand held medical diagnostic device named after the gadget used in "Star Trek" that will be able to "accurately diagnose 13 health conditions (12 diseases and the absence of conditions) and capture five real-time health vital signs, independent of a health care worker or facility, and in a way that provides a compelling consumer experience."

Doctors beware, the smartphone is coming for you!

Artificial intelligence presents other challenges. IBM's Watson now gives legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by humans.

As always, I welcome your comments. You can reach me by email at tstangl@theameryfreepress.com, telephone 715-268-8101 or write me at P.O. Box 424, Amery, WI, 54001.

Thanks for reading. I'll keep in touch. Feel free to do the same.

Source: Still no flying cars?