Sunday, December 11, 2016

Beware of flying cars and boats that drive

Sam Asano

Writing a business plan on your new invention is tedious regardless how detailed or brief it would be. The important thing is to write the first edition and keep reading it many times to improve it. 

A business based on your invention requires significant time thinking and writing your business plan. Many inventors spend significant time thinking about and building prototypes, but almost no time writing a business plan. They produce a prodigious amount of hand-drawn sketches of the device and try to explain how it works. When asked to show the plan to conduct his business, I often receive replies like "Oh, what's that?"

Now that we have more or less covered the subject of business plans, let's move on to finding problems to which your solution must be found. That is the crux of an invention!

I receive many requests for consultation on inventions from amateur inventors. The majority take almost identical form. "I have an invention, which I believe would become a successful product. I cannot divulge what it is, but would it be possible for you to meet with me and give me some advice?" "I honestly don't know where to go from here and I'd appreciate if you could point me to the right direction."

What's unsaid (or scarcely hidden) under this message is usually: "I don't want to tell you what I have in mind as I am afraid you'd steal it and make money from it. Also, I don't want to pay you any consulting fee because I am not asking any technical questions. I just want to know the general advice, which should be free."

I have am accustomed to this situation and I meet people when my time permits. Through these meetings I have accumulated some basic knowledge as to how to guide amateur inventors so they don't go hog-wild wasting their scant savings before any positive development happens.

So, here is Rule #1: Find a problem. Obviously, the purpose of finding a problem is to find a solution to eliminate it. Do not develop a solution looking for a problem! Human history is riddled with solutions looking for a problem. So much capital has been poured into these projects manned by brilliant scientists and engineers as well as seasoned businessmen, and yet in the end they were abandoned; labeled too expensive, too unreliable, too difficult to operate, too complicated or too expensive to maintain. But, the most striking declaration of death is "nobody wants it."

A prime example of a solution looking for a problem invention is a flying car. Ever since automobiles came into existence, I suppose people have dreamed of developing cars that can also fly. I cannot fathom how much capital has been thrown into the flying car development, but I can only guess it must reach in excess of $10 billion. Even Henry Ford worked on it. Go to YouTube and see "4 Real Flying cars That Actually Fly." Some flying cars look slick and do fly. How much does one have to pay to own one isn't quite clear, but I am sure there is a limited number of wealthy people who could afford one. That's one issue. The drivers, or pilots, must be licensed to fly in accordance with FAA regulations. The flight range is less than 400 miles with an air speed of less than 90 mph, so a 300-mile trip would take 3½ hours. The train or bus would probably get you there in a similar time. Therefore, there isn't a significant time saving by using a flying car.

In terms of cost, less than $200 for Amtrak or a bus cannot be compared with the flying car's sky-high (no pun intended) depreciation expense. So, unless I am going to a destination in the middle of a jungle or wilderness, the trip wouldn't justify. Another problem is that if you are going to a wilderness, you can't use the car part of the flying car as there wouldn't be paved roads.

Years ago there was a car that could also become a boat. It was called Amphicar, a German product. At that time, I was a beginner inventor and was fascinated by the product. The car drove OK, but its performance on the water as a boat was nothing like I had imagined. The product, however, survived for some years, and I am sure some can be purchased today in the vintage car (or boat?) market. The first question the amateur inventor should ask himself is: "Who needs it?"

Shintaro "Sam" Asano was named by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2011 as one of the 10 most influential inventors of the 20th century who improved our lives. He is a businessman and inven­tor in the field of electronics and mechanical systems who is credited as the in­ventor of the portable fax machine. Write to him at sasano@gmail.com.


Source: Beware of flying cars and boats that drive

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